To avoid crisis, policy in Vietnam needs to change soon

The authorities in Vietnam continue to give mixed signals on what they will do in 2011. This should not be a big surprise ahead of the important National Party Congress which will take place next week. Nevertheless, the challenge remains the same when attention finally returns to the economy. Vietnam needs to target lower inflation and smaller deficits rather than high GDP growth for its own sake. We expect that policies will correct. Interest rates will probably move up by the end of Q1 and there will likely be another, orderly and relatively small, devaluation of the currency on this time-horizon too.