Housing boom turning to bust

After a strong start to the year, the economy now appears on the verge of a slowdown as the housing boom turns to bust. Home sales have tumbled and we fear that the coming correction in house prices will restrain household consumption growth. Even allowing for an acceleration in export growth over the next two years, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.4% in 2017 to only 1.2% in 2018.

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