Capital Daily Reading the monetary tea leaves for clues on bonds A disparate range of global central banks have delivered their latest policy rate verdicts over the past 24 hours. We think there are four key points for investors to note . 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of the UK’s inflation mess Yet another upside surprise to UK inflation today has put the spotlight squarely back on Gilts and sterling, both of which have come under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England policy... 21st June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Little sign of AI euphoria in corporate credit While the AI revolution has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for US equities today, we don’t think it changes the outlook for US corporate credit spreads much. We think spreads still look too... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of even more inverted yield curves The greater inversion of yield curves, in response to the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, suggests to us the strength of equities won’t last. 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The S&P 500’s rally: 1995 or 2000? While the lessons from the late-1990s suggest that euphoria over AI could support the stock market for quite a while, especially in the US, we still think that weak economies will take some of the... 16th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Fed and ECB to hike in July, but US & EZ bond yields may fall While the ECB and the Fed took slightly different paths this week, we think they will both tighten policy again in July. Nonetheless, we still think government bond yields in the US and the euro-zone... 15th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The fed funds rate may go lower than investors think Investors may be right about the near-term path of the fed funds rate, but we suspect they’re underestimating how far it will fall; that’s one reason we think long-dated Treasuries will rally. 14th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Sticky UK inflation is unlikely to keep Gilt yields higher forever The 10-year Gilt yield has continued to march higher on the back of recent data releases, outpacing the equivalent Treasury yield and putting upward pressure on the pound against the greenback. But we... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think that most EM currencies will fall back by year-end Emerging Market (EM) currencies have generally appreciated against the US dollar since the start of this month, and indeed since last October. However, we think that nearly all “major” EM currencies... 12th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the S&P 500’s latest bull market We doubt the stock market rally will extend much further over the rest of this year. 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily US small caps may have made a false start After sitting out most of this year’s stock market rally, US small caps have shown signs of life this week. We think they might falter in the near term, but see reasons to be a bit more upbeat on... 8th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rate hike “skips”: good news for bonds or not? The experience of Australia and Canada in temporary pauses to rate hikes suggests that they may not sustainably lower long-term bond yields unless inflation is clearly under control. 7th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US markets growing more timid but may still be in for a shock Though US markets are already showing some signs of wariness in light of mixed data releases, we still think slower growth will mean the S&P 500 struggles over the rest of this year. 6th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily OPEC+ cuts: another worrying sign for global markets OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to cut oil production for the second time this year adds to an already muddled picture for global markets. Three key points are worth highlighting. 5th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls may not stop lower UST yields and equity prices Despite the stronger than expected US non-farm payroll print, we still think both the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the rest of this year. 2nd June 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EZ downside inflation surprise points to more euro weakness While we suspect that interest rate differentials between the euro-zone and the US might start to put a degree of upward pressure on euro-zone government bond yields and the euro, we think that the... 1st June 2023 · 7 mins read