Capital Daily What happened to the bond vigilantes? Tests of investors’ nerves have come thick and fast lately, with the latest being a hike in tariffs in Canada. Despite some small wobbles, the big picture is that those nerves have mostly held so far... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Brazil just isn’t big enough to rattle global markets Donald Trump’s planned imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazil for seemingly political reasons may represent a new milestone, but Brazil simply isn’t a big enough trading partner of the US to rattle... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Plenty of margin for error when it comes to tariffs Even if tariffs on US imports don’t rise substantially more next month for many countries after yet another delay, who is ‘paying’ for the increases in tariffs that have already occurred and appear... 9th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets are (probably) right to ignore Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop Market participants have largely shrugged off President Trump’s latest set of threats to raise tariffs on a range of countries, focusing on the fact that today’s “deadline” for re-imposing the... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Lack of tariff clarity may not hold back US markets Despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets – especially equities and the dollar – to rally over the rest of the year. 7th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Summer sun may shine on the S&P 500 There may be little to stand in the way of further gains in the S&P 500 this summer, provided today’s enactment of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ is followed next week by a market-friendly decision on... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Solid US payrolls point to rebound in UST yields & USD Another robust US payrolls report supports our view that the FOMC will remain on hold this year and, in turn, our forecast for Treasury yields and the dollar to rebound over the coming months. 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the Treasury rally to last the year We expect Treasuries to struggle over the rest of the year, despite their recent strong run. 2nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We’re not convinced the dollar will keep falling The weakness in the dollar in June was easier to explain than its slide in April and May since – unlike in those months – it was accompanied by a shift in bond yields that might have been expected to... 1st July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Record S&P 500 doesn’t mean record optimism With the S&P 500 at a new all-time high, its fall of more than 20% earlier this year already seems like a distant memory. However, we don’t think it’s really back to square one for US equities. 30th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed independence not a concern for markets, yet Although the US dollar has tumbled as President Trump has ramped up the pressure on the Fed to cut rates, we don’t think investors are that concerned about the central bank’s independence yet. But the... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily SLR change not a panacea for troubled Treasuries The Fed’s proposed loosening of supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules for big banks might help to improve demand for Treasuries, but we’re not yet persuaded it will outweigh the other headwinds... 26th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dissecting the round trip in US equities With the S&P 500 almost back at a record-high, we take stock of the different drivers of the US stock market’s recent (mis)fortunes. We suspect that the conditions will soon be back for equities in... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Mideast truce reduces one risk; FOMC schism next? The overnight announcement of a ceasefire between Israel/US and Iran has brought commodity and financial markets largely back to their pre-conflict square one. While tensions remain high and could... 24th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Can global markets continue to shrug off the war? US involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict has so far prompted just some volatility in global financial markets, with most major asset classes ultimately not far away from where they were on Friday... 23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market winners and losers from the Israel-Iran conflict In general, stock markets tend to be less affected by energy markets today than in the past. But the Israel-Iran conflict has already produced some interesting patterns in stock markets around the... 20th June 2025 · 4 mins read
