Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt this conflict will finally topple tech stocks US tech sectors have been on the back foot over recent days, with valuations falling towards those of the rest of the market. While this echoes the final months of the dotcom bubble, we think these... 27th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dual rally in stocks and bonds still on the cards With uncertainty in financial markets remaining high, we have published a new set of macro and market forecasts built around two key “scenarios”. For now, our baseline assumption is that equities... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Did an AI bubble in the US stock market already burst? If the presence or otherwise of an AI-fuelled bubble in the stock market is determined solely by the relative valuation of its technology sectors, then any such bubble in the S&P 500 has already burst... 25th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What we can learn from markets’ latest rebound The positive reaction to the latest news on the war provides some guide as to how things might fare if it de-escalates further, and suggests that the damage in some markets might be a bit longer... 24th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back in escalation mode Escalation in the war remains bad news for asset markets. And while central banks haven’t themselves done much to de-escalate conditions in the bond market, there’s a case, in our view, for an... 23rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Can China’s markets continue to outperform? China’s relative equity and bond market resilience could continue even if the war drags on, although the outlook for the renminbi is less clear. 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The future might not be so bad for government bonds While the conflict in the Middle East could evolve in myriad ways, we think government bonds would typically recover in our ‘baseline’ scenario but struggle in our ‘adverse’ one. That largely reflects... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed unlikely to join the hiking crew The inflation backdrop is growing increasingly problematic for the Fed and rate cuts are not likely anytime soon. That said, our sense is that the chance of rate hikes and a meaningful further sell... 18th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why the UK stock market isn’t doing better despite higher oil prices The Gilt market has grabbed a lot of headlines since the start of the war in the Middle East, as government bond yields have surged by more in the UK than elsewhere in response to soaring oil prices... 17th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Why the yen hasn’t been a safe haven The yen hasn’t fared especially well over the war so far, but we suspect that reflects some particular features of the current situation and isn’t a sign its safe-haven days are over for good. 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 sector implications of the surge in oil prices The relative resilience of the S&P 500’s ‘big-tech’ sectors since the US and Israel attacked Iran is a stark contrast to their underperformance when oil prices surged in 2022. It might reflect... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The state of play in global bond markets Government bonds shrugged off US inflation data and remain at the mercy of developments in the Middle East. This Capital Daily outlines the current state of play in global government bond markets. 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Putting the risk genie fully back in the bottle may take a while Hopes that an end to the war in the Gulf could be in sight appear to be growing. While that justifies the stabilisation in financial markets over the past day or so, we see three key reasons for... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Escalation and asset markets With the war continuing to escalate, this edition of the Capital Daily takes stock of how markets have fared so far and provides some thoughts on what might – and might not – continue to fare the best... 9th March 2026 · 4 mins read
