Capital Daily Two points for markets on the US-China trade talks We think the contentious US-China trade negotiations are much more important for Chinese equities than US ones. Meanwhile, the current backdrop favours a further renminbi rally. 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rout in JGBs will deepen While JGBs have been caught up in the latest chapter of the global bond market rout, we don’t expect them to continue to come under a lot of fire. 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in OAT-Bund spread has further to run The spread between the 10-year French and German government bond yields has reached its widest level in over a decade, and we think it will widen further next year as investors’ concerns about France... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Debt issuance may raise AI stocks’ exposure to yields That AI-related stock market sectors have tended to fare best when oil prices have tumbled partly reflects their high market betas and, increasingly, their sensitivity to bond yields as AI-related... 22nd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The AI bubble hasn’t burst yet We don’t think the fall in tech stocks’ relative valuations means the AI bubble has burst yet, and the rally may have a bit further to go. Meanwhile, there’s potential for market-moving news at the US... 21st September 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ undermines yen rally, again Those hoping that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest meeting would help deliver a stronger yen were, once again, left disappointed. At this point, any yen rally will likely need to be driven by a shift... 18th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Warsh puts his foot down, boosting the dollar While much of the drop in long-term government bond yields over the past couple of days reflects relief from lower oil prices, policy news from the Fed and the BoE (which has slowed its QT programme)... 17th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why there may still be hope for Gilts We expect Gilt yields to fall over the next year as the Bank of England doesn’t deliver on the amount of tightening that is priced into money markets. But given the potential for oil prices to rise... 16th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily AI news and bond rout weaken the case for an equity rebound While renewed enthusiasm for AI or a substantial retreat in US Treasury yields could breathe fresh life into the S&P 500, neither is looking very likely at the moment. That’s making us less confident... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Greenback to benefit as Fed presses ahead We don’t expect the Fed to add much fuel to the bond market sell-off later this week, but over the medium term we nonetheless think the relative monetary policy picture favours the US dollar... 14th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets still fairly resilient to US inflation threat While the US CPI data for August released today could have been worse, the combination of strong economic growth, above-target underlying inflation and the recent surge energy prices means that we now... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Would a 5% 10Y Treasury yield really be a tipping point? Today’s further, oil-price-driven, sell-off in global sovereign bonds has seen the 10-year US Treasury yield rise to almost 5%, which is seen by some as a threshold above which financial markets might... 10th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rare dual renminbi/CGB rally could go further It’s unusual for the renminbi to gain against the US dollar while China’s domestic bond yields are falling, as has been the case lately. But the latest economic data add to the case, in our view, that... 9th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect a rally, not just a rotation The strong performance of semiconductor stocks since OpenAI’s announcement of GPT-6 last week hasn’t lifted the S&P 500 index much, partly because of offsetting weakness in software stocks. But a... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Respite for bonds may be limited and uneven We expect German bunds to fare well in the medium term, almost regardless of what the ECB says this week. But US Treasuries aren’t likely to get the same relief. 7th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls resurgence strengthens the case for a dollar rebound The sharp rebound in US non-farm payrolls in August means that FOMC rate hikes may come sooner rather than later. In turn, that points to a rebound in the US dollar and further upwards pressure on US... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
