The growth rate of all the monetary aggregates has remained steady recently, with our reconstructed measure of the broad M3 aggregate expanding by about 5% over the past year.

We expect GDP growth of 1.5% for next year, down trivially from about 1.7% this year. Inflation should fall sharply to below 1% by year end, as commodity prices continue to drop back and the...

We are not convinced by suggestions that, due to either income being under recorded or based on alternative ways of measuring savings, the true household saving rate is much higher than the published...

The Fed put off making changes to its communications strategy and potentially announcing a third round of quantitative easing until the new year.