The rapid pace of money growth continued in September. To some extent the recent pick up reflects a jump in the precautionary demand for money, however, so it is not necessarily inflationary.

Recent events in Washington suggest that, with fiscal policy largely tapped-out and monetary policy ineffective, trade protection policies are becoming more appealing. Import tariffs are not the first...

Our baseline view is still that the US economy will avoid a recession, albeit only narrowly. Furthermore, if there is a recession, we suspect it would be a fairly modest one because the most cyclical...

One reason why wage growth may have not fallen much below 2% could be that the structural unemployment rate has risen by more than most estimates suggest. The extent of skills and location mismatching...