It is easy to fall into the trap of debating how large or small the output gap is. The simple truth, however, is that no one knows. But while the output gap is not directly observable, the...

Even though our measure of M3 grew by a healthy 5.6% in the year to January, there are some signs that bank lending is starting to grow more slowly. The danger is that a sovereign debt default in the...

It has been suggested that the reported decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.3% in January, from a high of 10.0% in February 2009, is not nearly as good as it looks because...

Last week both the Fed Chairman and the non-partisan CBO issued a stark warning about the fiscal path that America is heading down. Unless corrective action is taken, by the end of this decade Federal...