There are still fears of another sharp summer slowdown in economic growth, particularly after another disappointing gain in payrolls in April, but we think that the recovery will hold up better this...

The upward revisions to the Fed’s forecasts for core inflation published after last week’s policy meeting have largely been overlooked. But they actually play a crucial role in explaining why the...

The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed...

The likely acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter is encouraging, especially at a time when the recovery in the industrial sector appears to be running out of steam. But while we do...