The increase in participation of those aged 25-54 is partly due to a structural decline in disability rates, but the more recent drop in fertility rates also appears to be playing a key role. That...

At next week’s policy meeting, the Fed is likely to reiterate its current mantra that it can be “patient” in waiting to hike interest rates. Admittedly, stock markets have recovered most of the losses...

The Fed’s promise to be “patient” is why we now forecast just one additional rate hike in the first half of this year, with the fed funds rate peaking at 2.50-2.75%. But we are increasingly confident...

We have long argued that, rather than trade policy, an extended Federal government shutdown would be the key downside risk to the economy this year. Sure enough, the current stand-off is already the...