The Fed’s latest Financial Accounts release shows that total domestic credit market debt fell back to a 12-year low of 326% of GDP in the third quarter, from a peak of 370% in early 2009. Admittedly...

The sharp flattening of the yield curve, which has now inverted between two and five years out, is consistent with our view that economic growth is set to slow significantly next year. We currently...

On balance, we still think that the Fed will raise rates twice in the opening six months of 2019, taking the fed funds target range to between 2.75% and 3.00%. The renewed weakness of core inflation...

The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the...