The rumoured trade deal with China won’t in itself provide much boost to the economy even if it includes the removal of the punitive tariffs levied by both sides in the past year. We continue to...

The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little better than the markets were braced for, but the bottom line is that growth has now been slowing for the past few quarters. We expect that...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the FOMC’s “patient” mantra in his testimony to Congress today, but we think the Fed is already done hiking interest rates. With GDP growth slowing below potential...

The weak incoming data mean that economic growth is on track to slow below its 2% potential pace this quarter. That kills off any remaining prospect of further Fed rate hikes and, with economic growth...