The data releases this week strengthen our belief that the apparent weakness of GDP growth in the first quarter won’t just be a temporary blip. We expect a continued economic slowdown to convince the...

The partial inversion of the Treasury yield curve has attracted a lot of attention over the past week, but we have been more surprised by the speed at which markets have started to price in rate cuts...

For all the focus on the Treasury yield curve, other leading indicators of activity are not yet signalling that a recession is imminent. But their recent deterioration does suggest that the risks are...

The pick-up in broad money growth to a six-year high in February is not necessarily a positive for the economy because it is a lagging indicator. But it does at least suggest the Fed’s balance sheet...