Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to echo his colleagues in suggesting that rate cuts are likely to begin “later this year” in his testimony to Congress next week. But with the downward trend in core...

Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year...

The much stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in core PPI in January came as a hammer blow for PCE estimates. Coming on the heels of the hot 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI, our calculations now...

The strong reaction to the January CPI data demonstrates that markets still don’t fully comprehend that the Fed is focused on the alternative PCE measure of inflation. While core CPI inflation was...