The December JOLTS data show a continued painless normalisation in the labour market – with job openings on a downward trend, layoffs unusually low and wage growth set for a sharp slowdown.

We maintain a high conviction that core PCE inflation will be back to the 2% target by mid-2024. Despite claims that “the last mile will be the hardest”, core PCE prices have already been running at a...

It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to...

We argued last week that there was little to support the idea that the “last mile” of getting inflation back to 2% will somehow be the hardest. But new data on rent inflation released this week raise...