We still believe that the current productivity boom is mainly a cyclical phenomenon, as tight labour market conditions have forced firms to expand output by boosting the efficiency of their existing...

The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June.

Despite upward revisions to the median projections for both GDP growth and core PCE inflation, the Fed’s median forecast for interest rates still shows a cumulative 75bp of policy loosening this year...

We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic...