We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will return to the 2%target on a sustained basis early next year, as labour market conditions gradually ease. Up until recently we would also have argued...

The August JOLTS data provides some reassurance against fears that labour market conditions will deteriorate further, while the sharp fall in the private quits rate suggests that core services...

Leading up to this week’s annual revisions to the national accounts, we were attuned of the risk that the expenditure-based real GDP measure might be revised lower to match up with the income-based...

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is unlikely to trigger major economic disruption. Many retailers have made plans in anticipation of the strike and our sense is that, this close to the election...