Evidence of residual seasonality in the core PCE deflator means there is a risk that core price pressures will rebound in the new year. That said, the residual seasonality is concentrated in core...

Alongside the unexpectedly strong labour market data, September’s price data suggest that more than a few Fed officials might regret starting their easing cycle with a bigger 50bp rate cut. We...

The unexpectedly strong 254,000 gain in payroll employment in September was a welcome surprise, but the deterioration in most other labour market indicators suggests this was a one-off rather than the...

September’s blockbuster employment report and the rebound in the October ISM services index mean that any hopes of another 50bp rate cut are long gone. We continue to expect the Fed to take a more...