In purely mechanical terms, the limited data released this week did trigger a downward revision to our third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, from 2.0%. But only because the June trade data sets...

Despite the weakness of the latest labour market data, we judge that a soft landing is still the most likely outcome for the economy. Nonetheless, the risk of a hard landing has increased, while the...

The sharp slowdown in payrolls in July and further rise in the unemployment rate cast doubt on the Fed’s argument mid-week that it is still too soon to loosen policy. We now expect 25 bp cuts at each...

There was no surprise rate cut from the Fed today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at between 5.25% and 5.50%, but the changes in the accompanying statement – which included a shift...