Despite the acceleration in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, the growth of the broader M2 aggregate remains muted and our M3 measure is still shrinking.

The decline in the unemployment rate doesn't just reflect an improving job market, it is also equally due to a decline in the labour force participation rate. There are roughly one million people who...

In light of recent increases in oil and agricultural commodity prices, we now expect CPI inflation to peak at 2.5% this summer, up from our previous forecast of 2.0%. But this is unlikely to sway the...

The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers suggests that we could see a marked turnaround in business lending this year, which would presumably boost investment and possibly even employment too...