The rise in the price of oil to above $100 per barrel (pb) will not send the economy back into a recession or push the Fed much closer to tightening policy. Relative to our existing forecasts, the...

The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with...

The markets will be watching for any signs of a shift in tone in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress this week. Despite signs that the economic recovery is gathering momentum...

For the first time in a year, real consumption probably declined in January. Last month's unusually heavy snowfalls may be partly to blame. But the bad weather probably only exacerbated the slowing...