Recent events have left our forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates either this year or next out on a limb. But we are sticking to our guns. After all, this time last year a fading of the...

The possibility of a Federal government shutdown is back on the front pages, with concern growing that no agreement will be reached before the current continuing spending resolution expires this...

In contrast to the widespread view that Treasury yields will jump once the Fed concludes its second round of asset purchases, we think that yields could actually fall. It is even possible that the end...

We had originally expected first-quarter GDP growth to be pretty strong, possibly even as high as 4% at an annualised pace. The more incoming data we see, however, the more we suspect that growth will...