We are concerned that the ISM activity indices are painting a misleading picture of the strength of the economy. We’re inclined to place more faith in the Markit PMIs, which point to more realistic...

The US is still a large net importer of crude oil, so the recent collapse in oil prices will provide a net boost to real economic growth of about $150bn or 0.8% of GDP.

The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and...

Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still...