Despite the prospect of inflation spending most of this year below zero and the mixed news on wages, we still believe that the Fed will raise rates by June at the latest. Nonetheless, it is worth...

The boost to economic activity from the further plunge in oil prices and decline in 10-year Treasury yields since late last year will more than offset any additional drag from the further rise in the...

The collapse in global crude oil prices means that consumer price inflation will fall below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the next 12 months. Nevertheless, the...

The latest fall in crude oil prices means that headline CPI inflation will drop below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the year. Nevertheless, this bout of deflation...