Our macro forecasts for this year turned out to be broadly correct, with GDP growth accelerating,the unemployment rate falling further and the Fed winding down its asset purchase programme.Our big...

The FOMC statement issued today had something for everyone but, on balance, it does not dissuade us that unexpectedly strong employment growth over the next few months could still prompt the Fed to...

The recent slowdown in the growth rates of the monetary aggregates should not be interpreted as a sign that economic growth will soon slow. In fact, the surge in bank lending is a clear indication...

Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth has cooled a little further in recent weeks. Nonetheless, the slowdown since the summer has been milder than the tone of media...