There are one or two genuine reasons to worry about the strength of the labour market. But the deeper we dig, the more we’re convinced the spring slowdown in payroll employment growth is a temporary...

The recent rally in oil prices is a positive for the US economy insofar as it confirms that the drag from falling mining investment will fade by the second half of the year. And with households having...

The rising business inventory-to-sales ratio is not a signal of an imminent recession. The increase in the ratio of some specific components – machinery – is a potential problem. But much of the rise...

The robust growth in bank loans and the monetary aggregates is another reason to believe that second-quarter GDP growth will rebound markedly. The growth rate of our M3 measure accelerated to 4.0% in...