Markets are coming around to the idea that the Fed will raise rates for a second time either next month or in July, but still appear to be unusually sanguine about the prospects of additional rate...

Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump...

While we didn’t think that the more modest 160,000 increase in payroll employment in April necessarily ruled out the possibility of a June rate hike by the Fed, the increasing probability that...

The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that, contrary to the already reported slowdown in the pace of monthly payroll gains in April, labour market slack is still shrinking. That should eventually...