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Chief Economist's Note Central banks on pause for now but policy divergence is coming The Iran war has presented central banks with a familiar problem. Higher oil prices amount to a classic stagflationary supply shock: they push inflation up while weighing on growth, particularly in... 27th July 2026
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s GDP rebound, smooth(ish) USMCA talks GDP data from Mexico due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy rebounded last quarter after a contraction in Q1, which may quell some of Banxico's dovish talk. Further out, the outlook... 24th July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two mounting upsides to our inflation and interest rate forecasts The recent rebound in oil and gas prices and the prospect of looser fiscal policy under the new Burnham government suggests the risks to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.0%, CPI inflation to fall to... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Are indirect effects just around the corner? The indirect effects of higher energy prices on inflation have so far been absent, but they could start to emerge in the second half of the year if energy prices remain high or rise further. That... 24th July 2026 · 8 mins read
