While the strength in the composite PMI in August confirms that Japan’s economy is proving resilient to global trade tensions, there are early signs that external demand is weakening in earnest.

The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with...

July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by...

The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 3.5% y/y masked continued weakness in core inflation, which leaves the door open for the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle to continue. We remain...