While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel speculation that further interest rate cuts are off the agenda this year, the Bank...

We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to...

The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures...

July’s softer core price data, combined with favourable downward revisions to previous months’ figures, leave the three-month annualised average rate of CPI-trim and CPI-median at a more modest 2.4%...