February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity improved at the start of this year, but that activity in emerging markets continued to outperform that in advanced economies...

Although world goods trade rose in December, it wasn’t enough to change the fact that 2023 was one of the weakest years for trade in over 70 years, as we forecast a year ago. As for 2024, we expect a...

Larger government stimulus during the pandemic and a higher propensity to run down “excess savings” have contributed to particularly strong growth in the US. On the other hand, a significant terms of...

Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of...