On the face of it, core disinflation seems to have stalled or even reversed in the US but not in Europe, suggesting that Fed cuts will come much later than those by the ECB and BoE. However, there are...

As things stand, higher oil prices will boost inflation in advanced economies by only a few tenths of a percentage point in the months ahead and we still expect this boost to fade as the year goes on...

There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving...

After a historically weak 2023, there are early signs of a modest turnaround in world goods trade which we expect to endure. Meanwhile, global container shipping costs have halved – and those for...