As expected, the first effects of tariffs introduced by the US and some of its key trade partners are quite small. The main risk to the world economy is from a much bigger escalation of the trade war...

The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis. This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class...

The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis. This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class...

Some commonly-cited indicators suggest that the global economy has lost momentum recently. But a closer look indicates that most of these do not have a very good relationship with GDP growth. And...