Global Economics Chart Pack Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q3 2022) Private investment rebounded last quarter and while firms’ projections at face value point to a further pick-up over the remainder of the financial year, the figures are consistent with a slowdown in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Private Capex (Q3 & 2022/23) 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The solid 1.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in October indicates that business equipment investment continues to hold up reasonably well in the face of higher borrowing costs, helped by a boost to... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Sep. 2022) Weakness in the manufacturing sector led to “core” machinery orders falling for a second consecutive month in September. Worse still, machine tool orders indicate that the two-month losing streak... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October data point to a further loss of momentum, with retail sales dropping sharply amid worsening virus outbreaks. November is shaping up to be even worse. With exports cooling, the property... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read