Africa Economics Weekly SA current account deteriorates, Senegal’s debt problem Q2 data this week showed the energy shock is putting South Africa’s current account position under strain, and with oil prices back above $100pb, we expect that external pressure to persist in the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria & Angola pick up, S. Africa Q2 data to disappoint The strength of the Q2 GDP figures out of Nigeria and Angola this week has prompted us to revise up our 2026 growth forecasts for both economies. But while Nigeria’s economy is likely to strengthen... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rally won’t last, Strong SA Data, Zambia Inflation High commodity prices have continued to support the Nigerian naira, but we don’t think this will continue. For the Zambian kwacha, heightened post-election political uncertainty is a key risk that... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food inflation slump, Ethiopia FX, Zambia election The fall in South African inflation in July is likely to be followed by a pick-up in the coming months due to unfavourable base effects. But underlying inflation pressures, as well as food inflation... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA extended, Kenya and Uganda hold rates The African Growth and Opportunity Act took another step towards being extended this week, providing further evidence that Africa is emerging from the latest US trade actions relatively unscathed... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana soft inflation, Nigeria’s military get spending boost Ghana’s surprisingly soft inflation print for July suggests that another rate cut is possible, but robust growth and the BoG’s drive to build its credibility and stabilise the cedi mean we still think... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana and South Africa’s fiscal discipline paying off Ghana's reforms under its IMF program, which finished this week, have given the government space to loosen policy to support growth. Fiscal discipline is also paying off in South Africa, where the... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Hawkish holds in Ghana & Nigeria, dovish hold in South Africa The decisions by central banks in Nigeria and Ghana to hold interest rates (rather than cut) suggests that policymakers in both countries are focusing on burnishing their inflation-fighting... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and Nigeria rate meetings, Angola’s large cut South Africa’s central bank is likely to hike rates again next week, but with inflation stabilising and underlying pressures relatively soft, we think this will be the last in the cycle. Nigeria... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA Treasury cuts off municipalities, Nigeria’s oil output South Africa’s municipal funding freezes this week signal the Treasury’s commitment to fiscal discipline, but risks hurting the ANC’s electoral appeal ahead of November's critical local elections. In... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s fiscal travails, East Africa and Ghana inflation The IMF's warning this week that Nigeria’s budget deficit is wider than officially reported comes on the back of recently-raised concerns about the use of total return swaps and will put pressure on... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s PPI surprise, Ebola response South Africa’s PPI surprised to the upside this week, but with crude oil back to pre-war prices and domestic harvests strong, we think the SARB rate hiking cycle is nearly done. Elsewhere, the Ebola... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly The end of the Iran war and what it means for Africa Many economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly those in East Africa, will be key beneficiaries from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the drop back in global energy prices, although the... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African inflation, Abiy’s next term Data due next week are likely to show a further rise in inflation in South Africa in May, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy again. But we think a hike in July will... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA food Inflation, Angola Eurobond, Nigeria GDP The South African Reserve Bank talked up inflation risks at its meeting this week, at which it hiked rates by 25bp, but the tightening cycle is likely to be modest. Elsewhere, Angola has tapped... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
