China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreigners staying away, consumers perking up When officials launched the “Invest in China” campaign in March, they had hoped 2023 would be the year in which foreign investment came roaring back, supported by the removal of COVID restrictions... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy has returned to growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, after a period of stagnation, China’s economy has returned to growth recently, with output finally surpassing its previous high in August. Policy support... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too soon to conclude property easing has failed It’s been two weeks since Chinese regulators announced a major easing of property controls and so far there hasn’t been a meaningful turnaround in new home sales at the national level. But many cities... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Although a slight uptick in activity was expected, the August data turned out to be even better than anticipated. Fiscal support shored up investment but the real bright spot was a healthy pick-up in... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Huawei’s chip breakthrough Huawei’s new phone suggests that SMIC, China’s top chipmaker, has succeeded in mass-producing 7nm chips, an important step towards technological self-sufficiency. But it is too early to conclude that... 8th September 2023 · 9 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of a downward spiral. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Aug.) The PMI surveys suggest economic momentum stabilised in August after months of slowdown. Downward pressure on manufacturing activity appears to have dissipated, while construction activity accelerated... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Treading water Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy regained some ground in July, following a contraction in June. But the big picture is that output has levelled off recently and that the... 29th August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property stimulus tea leaves, BRICS expansion The PBOC surprised analysts by keeping the benchmark for mortgage pricing unchanged this week. President Xi’s catch-phrase “houses are for living in, not for speculation”, widely associated with tight... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Latest on China, the BOJ policy outlook, Indian inflation and more 31st August 2023, 9:00AM BST This month’s briefing on the big regional macro and market stories includes the latest on China’s struggling economy, the next steps from the Bank of Japan as inflation becomes more widespread, and...
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) All the main activity indicators undershot consensus expectations in July, with most either stagnant or barely expanding in m/m terms. And with financial troubles at developers such as Country Garden... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export pullback understated, foreign travel to pick up The export data published by China’s customs bureau appear to have become less reliable recently and subject to unusually large revisions. Alternative indicators suggest that the true level of exports... 11th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in q/q terms in Q2, underperforming most expectations. A sharp fall in government spending and further struggles in the trade logistics sector more than outweighed a... 31st July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Jul.) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery continued to lose momentum in July. Downward pressure on manufacturing intensified, construction activity decelerated sharply, and services... 31st July 2023 · 3 mins read
