China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Supportive fiscal policy will support growth in HK Today’s budget maintains a supportive fiscal stance, and contains major steps to revitalise the property sector. Spending to attract foreign visitors to Hong Kong and support businesses was stepped up... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Why China’s NPC won’t fix what ails its economy 5th March 2024, 8:00AM GMT The 2024 National People’s Congress (NPC) will take place against a backdrop of acute concern about the Chinese economic outlook. This annual legislative session is the moment the government unveils…
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s growth picked up only marginally in Q4, underperforming most expectations. And although we foresee some further upside as foreign visitors and workers continue to return, we think the... 31st January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery continuing at the end of 2023 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output ended 2023 above the high it reached before growth spluttered in the middle of the year. With policy support still flowing, a further... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec.) China’s economy lost momentum in Q4 according to the official GDP figures. But we suspect that’s because they failed to acknowledge the full extent of the weakness earlier in the year. 17th January 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Dec.) The official and Caixin PMIs have moved in opposite directions recently. But taken together, they point to some improvement in economic momentum in December thanks to gains in services and... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Policy still easing but not enough to hit growth target Although the Loan Prime Rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, today’s coordinated reductions in commercial bank deposit rates suggest the PBOC is still on an easing path. Meanwhile, a lower headline... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Service sector continuing gradual recovery Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economic recovery is continuing as the service sector makes up further lost ground. With policy support still flowing and consumers feeling less... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The main bright spot was a healthy pick-up in industrial output thanks to the strength in exports. Retail sales and fixed investment remained resilient. Meanwhile, troubles in the property sector... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Debt woes widely known but far from priced in Moody’s downgrade to China’s rating outlook received a muted response in markets. That’s partly because the country’s economic challenges are already widely known. But the bigger picture is that... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
