Commodities Weekly Lockdowns are only part of China’s subdued demand The supply risks associated with the war in Ukraine have not gone away, but there has been more market attention in recent weeks on the outlook for commodities demand. In the very near term, the... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s import demand to remain subdued Commodity import volumes revived a little in May, perhaps as virus-related restrictions started to ease. Although demand should pick up in tandem with activity as major cities re-open, we think that... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks rose this week owing to an unusually large release from the strategic reserve and a slump in crude exports. Interestingly, implied product demand ticked up, after being... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply concerns to dominate for some time yet Energy and agricultural prices continued to rise in May as concerns about supply more than offset signs that demand, at least for energy, could soften. We expect prices to remain historically high but... 7th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Tightening the Squeeze on Russia Caroline Bain, the chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, told DealBook that while Russia would find other customers, “it’s going to be a disorderly process, and that will keep prices high... 31st May 2022 · New York Times
Commodities Watch Lessons from the spike in agriculture prices in 2007-12 The last time the prices of agricultural commodities rose as sharply as they have done in recent months was in the run up to the Global Financial Crisis and in 2011-12. During these times fears of... 31st May 2022 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for clarity on the EU’s oil import embargo A persistent theme in energy markets is uncertainty about the outlook for the EU’s imports of energy from Russia. It does appear that some sort of embargo of oil imports will be announced, maybe as... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Easing of lockdown lifts metals prices, for now… The prices of many industrial metals (IM) picked up this week on news of an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China. However, we think weak demand and improved supply in China will send IM prices... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) After a weak start to the year, it looks increasingly as though a rebound in China’s output will more than offset lower production in Russia and Europe so that global production will rise a touch this... 20th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Auto sector woes to weigh on natural rubber prices After a post-pandemic rebound in 2021, we expect growth in global demand for natural rubber (NR) to slow this year in tandem with a downturn in industrial activity, notably in the NR-intensive auto... 18th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy prices no longer appear to be “lifting all boats” Most commodity prices fell this week amid a general sell-off in risky assets and a stronger US dollar. That said, we think the days of higher energy prices leading to an all-encompassing rally in... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Some bright spots in China’s commodities trade data Energy commodity imports held up relatively well in April given the widespread COVID-19 restrictions. But the trade data throw up some question marks about demand for industrial metals given the... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand and supply pull prices in opposing directions Energy prices continue to be pummelled by upward pressure related to fears of supply shortages and downward pressure from signs of slower economic growth, tighter monetary policy and a stronger US... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update PMI readings bode ill for commodities demand The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
