Energy Update Sky-high gas prices here to stay, with risks to the upside We have revised up our forecasts of the European natural gas price due to the scale of Russia’s supply cuts and the likelihood that these are permanent. Prices should ease back in 2023 as Europe... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Natural gas price knows no bounds It was another week of soaring natural gas prices as LNG demand from Asia appears to have picked up and the energy crisis in Europe deepens by the day. Ultra-dry and hot weather across Europe is... 19th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Pressure from rising Treasury yields likely to resume This week the prices of most commodities got a boost as investors pared back expectations for rate hikes in the US, following lower than expected inflation data. That said, we still expect a further... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s monthly report for August showed that the group continues to produce significantly less than its quota and we expect this trend to continue in the coming months. OPEC is clearly worried about... 11th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s copper imports are the only bright spot Commodity import volumes remained lacklustre in July, consistent with subdued activity in heavy industry and construction. We think import growth should tick up in the coming months in response to... 8th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices fall, but supply risks remain In a week of relative financial market calm, there was a pause in the large, sentiment-driven swings that have characterised most commodity prices in recent weeks. Instead, prices seemed to take... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Gold’s lustre to return in 2023 Having fallen sharply in Q2, we think that the gold price is now close to a cyclical trough. What’s more, the price should revive a little in 2023 as markets factor in the prospect of US monetary... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
OPEC Plus members agree to a small increase in oil production. It’s still unclear what effect Western sanctions will have on Russia’s oil production, said Caroline Bain, the chief commodities economist at Capital Economics. Output could fall significantly over... 3rd August 2022 · New York Times
Commodities Update The boost from China reopening is now behind us China’s PMIs fell in July, weighed down by soft export orders. However, we think that China’s economy troughed in H1 2022, and that a modest pick-up in H2 should give some support to commodities... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices rally, but room for further gains is limited The prices of most commodities across energy, metals and agriculturals rose this week. The common driver was investors dialling back their expectations of the aggressiveness of US monetary policy... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Prices to find a floor While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months... 28th July 2022 · 40 mins read
Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength likely to return and weigh on prices It was a more positive week for prices, in large part owing to some softness in the US dollar. Otherwise, the news was not particularly positive for prices given the ECB’s surprise decision to hike... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) Global aluminium production ticked up again in June, but the increase was not sufficient to explain the plunge in prices last month. Base effects will mean that China’s production growth will... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to remain historically high Europe’s heightened demand for LNG will be enough to keep prices high this year and into 2023, particularly as LNG supply growth will be fairly limited. 18th July 2022 · 4 mins read
