Commodities Weekly China reopening to boost commodity prices The dismantling of China’s zero-COVID policy has come quicker than we and many had expected. Whereas we previously thought the first quarter would bring the worst of the economic disruption from... 13th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to rebound this year Commodity imports generally rose in December, but fell in 2022 as a whole. In a possible sign of optimism around reopening, soybean imports skyrocketed. China’s unexpectedly swift switch to living... 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly New year, same trends Most commodity prices declined this week, with energy prices falling especially sharply. Unseasonably mild weather in Europe and the US weighed on heating demand, prompting a plunge in gas prices. The... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Update A lower gas price forecast, but prices to stay high European natural gas prices have halved over the past month as usage stayed low and LNG imports hit record highs. Barring dramatically colder weather, EU gas storage looks set to be in a more... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes will remain on China It was a fairly quiet week in commodity markets. The only notable move was a slump in natural gas prices. The EU eventually agreed its long-discussed natural gas price cap early in the week, but it... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report This week’s report showed a sizeable drop in commercial crude stocks as net imports fell sharply. With US production unlikely to rise by much and plans for strategic reserves to be refilled next year... 21st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update EU gas price cap unlikely to be triggered The EU’s new policy to limit gas prices is unlikely to be activated next year. And with so many caveats built in, it seems the only thing countries agreed on was that a cap was indeed needed to show... 20th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook The global recession isn’t done with commodities yet Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown... 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Falling Russian supply to keep oil prices high in 2023 We think slower global economic activity and a somewhat stronger US dollar will weigh on commodities prices in the coming months. However, the recession should prove relatively shallow and we expect... 5th December 2022 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks fell for a second consecutive week and are likely to come under further pressure if strategic reserve releases wind down. Despite this, oil prices slid on demand worries and as... 23rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update US oil output will edge higher next year High oil prices have led to a recovery in US oil investment this year. But US crude production gains have been tempered by rising business costs and an emphasis on returning profits to shareholders... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
