Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates in 2022 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stuck to its dovish stance when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to raise rates towards the end of next year. 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Travel bubble & vaccine rollout The Australia-New Zealand travel bubble is set to launch in mid-April which should support employment in the tourism and transport sectors. But employment won’t fully rebound until the tourism returns... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data won’t faze the Bank New Zealand has probably experienced a second technical recession over the past couple of quarters. Even so, the labour market continues to recover and inflation is in good shape. So the Bank shouldn... 7th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dovish RBA to expand QE by another $100bn in June The Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its dovish stance despite the strength in recent data so we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in June. 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Job vacancies are surging, and employers say it's hard to find suitable labour Ben Udy, an economist from Capital Economics, says his "composite" measure of vacancies, where he combines the number of job vacancies and skilled vacancies with ANZ's job ads survey, is sitting at... 5th April 2021 · Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Bubble or boom? Why ultra-low interest rates mean house prices may never bust Ben Udy, Australia and New Zealand economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, expected prices to keep rising while rates were so low. “We don’t think asset classes are overvalued or ripe for... 4th April 2021 · The Guardian
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Booming housing & labour markets The RBA and APRA seem to be washing their hands of responsibility for skyrocketing house prices. But we think the likely surge in credit growth in the months ahead means that APRA will be forced to... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House prices are surging but forward indicators somewhat mixed and we suspect the pace of price growth will ease in the second half of this year. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade & Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales and the trade surplus declined in February but while we still expect consumption to rise in Q1, net trade may have been a drag on growth. 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Recent data not enough for the RBA to shift course In recent weeks, the Reserve Bank of Australia has continued to push back against expectations of monetary tightening. We think the RBA will keep policy settings unchanged at the meeting on 6th April... 31st March 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government’s housing moves take pressure off RBNZ New tax policies aimed at reducing the appeal of housing as an investment asset in New Zealand, together with the RBNZ’s macroprudential policies, should lead to lower house price growth in the months... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of a travel bubble would be small Even if the long-rumoured Australia-New Zealand travel bubble does go ahead, it wouldn’t make a huge difference to either economy. We think the bubble would give a small boost to New Zealand’s GDP and... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market doesn’t mean RBA will tighten The stronger than expected labour market data will have been a nice surprise to the RBA with the unemployment rate now below its year-end forecast. But we had always expected the unemployment rate to... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
New Zealand at risk of double-dip recession as Covid-19 recovery stalls “The solid decline in activity in Q4 means that a second recession is imminent as gross domestic product is bound to decline in the first quarter,” said Ben Udy, economist at Capital Economics... 18th March 2021 · Financial Times
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The surge in employment in February is consistent with our view that the Australian labour market is tightening much faster than most expect. 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2020) The solid decline in activity in Q4 means that a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1. 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
