UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) While the rise in the annual rate of house price growth from 10.7% in June to 11.0% in July will make most of the headlines that was driven by base effects. Instead, we think the main takeaway from... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Deteriorating economic outlook hits sentiment We now think that the reduction in consumer real incomes due to high inflation will push the economy into recession this year. But the Bank of England is likely to have to keep on raising interest... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals slipped back to below 2019 levels in June supporting our view that higher interest rates will cause housing market activity to slump over the next two years. Indeed, further rises... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Rents to grow at twice their 2010s rate this decade Although less widely reported than the house price boom, rents have been setting records too. The 11% y/y rise in the Zoopla rents index in Q1 was the fastest since the series began in 2006. That... 26th July 2022 · 18 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q2 2022) The Q2 credit conditions survey shows that lenders will not loosen credit conditions to keep the house price boom going like they did in 2004-2007. Indeed, despite the fact demand is expected to slump... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) There was an unmistakeable cooling in the housing market in June as the new buyer enquiries balance slipped further into negative territory. With mortgage rates continuing to rise and the economy on... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about refinancing risk? The impact of rising mortgage rates and the hit to real incomes from high inflation have given rise to fears of mortgage repayment difficulties when existing borrowers come to remortgage. But the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) The substantial rise in the Halifax house price index in June was surprising given the softening in the Nationwide figures in the same month, and the deterioration in leading indicators of housing... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.) The third consecutive monthly fall in the construction PMI suggests that that growth in development activity is slowing. The near-term outlook has also deteriorated, with growth in new orders easing... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Cost inflation to ease alongside new home volumes After reaching a record-high in June, we think that inflation in builders’ costs will soon start to ease. But even as cost pressures subside, construction volumes will slump as the housing market... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update The anatomy of a housing market downturn Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the... 24th June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Withdrawal of affordability test is a wise move We suspect that the main reason for the hasty withdrawal of the Financial Policy Committee’s mortgage affordability test is that it was on course to become a severe constraint on many buyers’... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates begin to take their toll The rise in mortgage rates from a low of 1.5% last November to 1.8% in April is beginning to weigh on home purchase demand, with the new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS survey dropping into... 20th June 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q1 22) The detailed quarterly mortgage lending data from the Bank of England confirmed that the squeeze on lenders margins intensified at the start of the year, suggesting that mortgage rates will continue... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update How significant are the Government’s housing reforms? The Prime Minister last week announced a trio of policies aimed at reversing the decline in home ownership since the financial crisis. We doubt the schemes will make a big difference, although more... 13th June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May) Softening demand in the RICS survey is a sure sign that rising mortgage rates are now putting prospective buyers off. Together with steady supply, that left the survey consistent with house prices... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
