UK Housing Market Update Market moves make house price falls inevitable In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Housing Update to clients of our UK Economics service. The rise in market interest rates that has already happened will push up mortgage... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of higher rates for the housing market Investors have revised up how far they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates as they continue to digest the tax cuts announced on Friday. This Update examines what the impact on the... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tax reduction can’t rescue the market from higher rates The Chancellor took a rare, targeted approach to Stamp Duty in today’s vast package of tax cuts. The changes will remove the tax altogether for large numbers of buyers while retaining most of the... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher rates make price falls even more likely The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast means that mortgage rates will rise further and faster than we previously envisaged, to a peak of 4.7% in March. The resulting higher cost of mortgage... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q2 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q2 show solid lending volumes, growing leniency on deposit sizes and income multiples, and arrears at a record low. But the ongoing adjustment to higher interest... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Pandemic trends intact as outlook darkens London house prices and transactions have proven resilient to the headwinds of the cost-of-living crisis and rising mortgage rates so far. House price growth in London rose to 7.2% y/y in Q2, the... 13th September 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fiscal package will not prevent house price falls PM Liz Truss’ fiscal package will limit the size of the forthcoming recession, but that may force the Bank of England to raise rates further to get inflation back to target in the medium term. As a... 8th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) A further deterioration in demand in August has led surveyors to accept that a fall in prices is coming. The survey is already consistent with prices falling by 2% q/q in Q4 this year, and the... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) The modest 0.4% rise recorded by Halifax in August confirms that house prices have continued to increase despite the sharp increases in mortgage rates we have seen so far and growing pressure on... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug.) The surprise increase in the construction PMI is little cause for optimism given it was driven by the reversal of an idiosyncratic fall in civil engineering activity a month earlier. Indeed, the... 6th September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) The solid 0.8% m/m increase in house prices in August suggested that house prices managed to retain some positive momentum despite growing pressure on households’ finances. But the drag on demand from... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) While mortgage approvals ticked up in July, that only reversed a fraction of their previous decline. And the drag on buyer demand from the ongoing increase in mortgage rates and surging energy bills... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to fall and activity to slump Tight supply has supported house prices so far, but they now appear to be stalling. Demand will only deteriorate further over the coming quarters as rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and the... 12th August 2022 · 23 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) The RICS survey showed that weaker demand has not yet fed through to falls in prices, but sales volumes are beginning to wilt. We think it is just a matter of time before prices follow activity lower. 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) Like Nationwide, Halifax reported that house price growth ground to a halt in July. As these house price indices are based on mortgage approvals, its possible that affordability rules put a temporary... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul.) The fourth consecutive decline in the headline construction PMI took the index below 50 for the first time since January 2021. While driven by an idiosyncratic drop in civil engineering activity, the... 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
