UK Housing Market Update Interest rate lift off highlights risks While the hike in Bank Rate from 0.10% to 0.25% came a little earlier than we expected, it does not change our view that the overall rise in interest rates over the next couple of years will be modest... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update End of affordability test opens door to larger mortgages While mortgage lending slowed in Q3 as the stamp duty holiday was tapered, an easing of deposit requirements supported first-time buyer demand. Meanwhile, the Financial Policy Committee’s plan to... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will the squeeze on real incomes hit real house prices? Consumers will feel a squeeze on their finances next year as inflation and taxes rise. That will take some wind out of the housing market’s sails, but it will not cause a correction. Note: Central... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) There was no sign of any let up in the house price boom in November as new buyer enquiries rose again. Another strong survey also suggests that the market could continue to run hot for some time... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The Halifax house price index suggests that not only did the end of the stamp duty holiday fail to dent the market, but that house price growth has since accelerated to a post-financial crisis high. 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) The construction PMI rose for a second-consecutive month in October, to its highest level since July. However, we expect continued labour and supply shortages to hamper output in the near term. 6th December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) House prices recorded another above-consensus gain in November as strong buyer demand bid prices up further. There is little sign of that dynamic changing anytime soon, so we expect the consensus... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Mortgage approvals remained robust in October after the end of the stamp duty holiday, only easing back into line with their pre-pandemic average. With demand strong, we suspect that mortgage... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 300,000 supply target remains out of reach The most comprehensive statistics on housing supply confirmed that the pause in construction in Q2 2020 caused completions of new homes to drop back. Housebuilding activity has since recovered but... 29th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Where is all the stock? Estate agents undoubtedly have a very limited number of homes on the books. But the idea that the lack of supply is due to few homes being put up for sale is a misconception. High numbers of... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Little sign of momentum in prices abating The end of the stamp duty holiday has had remarkably little impact on buyer demand. If anything, the imbalance between strong home purchase demand and limited supply is intensifying. Indeed, Rightmove... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Increase in mortgage rates to be limited Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Rather than representing a “rush before mortgage rates rise”, we suspect that the rise in new buyer interest in October will prove durable. With inventory very limited, that points to house prices... 11th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Higher interest rates to dab on the brakes We think it will take longer than most others expect for rising interest rates to bring down the curtain on the COVID-19 house price boom. A large stock of household savings, the ongoing adjustment to... 8th November 2021 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Dovish surprise reduces housing market risks The indication from the Bank of England that Bank Rate of 1.25% would be too high for the economy suggests that the forthcoming rise in interest rates won’t be anywhere near large enough to topple the... 5th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) Construction firms reported that activity strengthened in October despite higher costs and continued difficulty sourcing materials. The big picture is that until those constraints ease construction... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
