US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (May.) Total employment growth was resilient across metros in May, recording 0.6% 3m/3m on average. That growth was led again by Boston, Las Vegas and Charlotte, with San Antonio also seeing a rise of over 1... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.) House prices rose in April by the fastest pace in close to a year, reflecting constraints to supply as high mortgage rates have discouraged existing homeowners from moving. Although prices have shown... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May.) Single-family starts saw the largest monthly increase in nearly three years in May, suggesting homebuilders have been responding to the recent rises in new home sales. We still expect a mild recession... 20th June 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Prices edge lower as recession weighs on demand Poor affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low over the next few quarters. While house prices increased in February and... 1st June 2023 · 15 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) Total employment growth reached a solid 0.7% 3m/3m on average in April for the second consecutive month, led by Boston, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Orlando. But for office-based jobs, the poor... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Weak Q1, but bigger price falls to come in Q2 The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply once again in April. Lending against all commercial sectors turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, and with little in the way... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Manufacturing will boom while incentives last The sharp rise in US manufacturing construction over the past two years is likely to continue into the medium term as firms take advantage of favourable government incentives. But as these expire... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Affordability adds downside risk to big 6 apartments We think migration patterns of footloose workers will continue to play the largest role in driving the rental outlook across metros. But rent as a share of income will also have a bearing, weighing on... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) The rate of job growth in March remained virtually unchanged from the previous month, signalling resilience across our covered metros despite a slowdown in non-farm payrolls. Within the tech sector... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey indicated confidence fell further in the opening months of the year but remains substantially above the lows seen during the height of the pandemic. However, we expect sentiment to... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Mar.) March’s net commercial real estate lending slowed sharply following SVB’s collapse early in the month. Lending against multifamily fell for the first time in 18 months, driven by a reduction in small... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Western and big six metros set for 25%+ price falls We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western... 14th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office values set to tank over the next two years We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping... 6th April 2023 · 23 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) February saw a slowdown in jobs growth after a strong month prior, suggesting January’s jump in employment was an outlier as the labour market resumes its cooling. We expect metros with a high... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
