Charlie Cornes

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2023)

Property yields rose across all sectors in Q2. However, for the retail sector this was offset by rises in the 10-year treasury yield. Consequently retail saw a small decline in valuations, whereas...

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2023)

All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in...

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jul.)

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Commercial Property Lending (July)

July saw the amount of outstanding debt secured against real estate rise (albeit marginally) after a sharp drop in June, driven by a strong rebound in residential lending. Across the commercial real...

US Housing Market Outlook

Prices stabilize, but activity to remain weak

With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum...

US Commercial Property Update

Is there real evidence of an office 'flight to quality'?

The data show a small, but limited, divergence in performance between overall class A and classes B and C office space. But that differential appears to have been driven by newly-built " trophy" space...

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

US Metro Employment (Jun.)

Seasonally-adjusted total employment growth rose by 0.6% 3m/3m on average across the 30 metros we track for the third consecutive month. But there has been clear weakness in the information sector in...

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Jul.)

June’s rebound in mortgage applications for home purchase was short-lived as total applications fell by 1.7% in July. This pushed applications back down toward 30-year lows and was probably prompted...

US Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2)

The latest RICS survey signalled a slight improvement in occupier and investment sentiment in Q2, but confidence remained low by historic standards. Tight credit conditions and a poor economic...

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May.)

House prices rose for the fourth consecutive month in May according to Case-Shiller. The resurgence in prices has coincided with an uptick in home sales from February to May, in turn driven by a...

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jun.)

Single-family starts fell back from their 11-month high in June, but remained substantially above the average seen in 2023 thus far as homebuilders remained optimistic. However with mortgage rates...

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Commercial Property Lending (June)

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Clear split between weak west and strong south

The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist...

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25

Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our...

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

A slight decline in mortgage rates allowed mortgage applications for home purchase to recover from the previous month’s lows in June. That said, applications remain below the average seen so far this...

US Commercial Property Outlook

Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse

The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector...