Global Economics Rapid Response Trump folds on tariffs under market pressure Although President Donald Trump was able to resist the stock market sell-off, once the bond market began to weaken too, it was only a matter of time before he folded on his eye-wateringly high tariffs... 9th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2025) The bumper 228,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in March offers some welcome good news amid the escalating global trade war, showing that the labour market remains healthy despite the drag from DOGE-led... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Mar. 2025) The fall in the ISM services index in March shows that the weakness isn’t isolated to the manufacturing sector. Our weighted average ISM index is consistent with the economy contracting, although it... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit in February was driven by stronger exports, mainly of non-monetary gold, while imports remained at record levels, as businesses continued to rush orders ahead of... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2025) The slight dip in the ISM manufacturing index in March suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2025) The third consecutive above-target gain in core PCE prices in February, of 0.37% m/m, reinforces our view that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year. Admittedly, officials are likely to... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump imposes 25% tariff on auto imports Following media reports at the start of this week that product-specific tariffs would be deferred, President Donald Trump has changed tack once again and announced that all finished motor vehicle... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2025) Stronger orders for primary metals and fabricated metal products in February suggest that tariff effects helped to drive up core durable goods orders last month, while transportation orders also did... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the FOMC stuck to its median projection for two interest rate cuts this year, some officials now share our view that further loosening is unlikely and we continue to think that Fed officials... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Feb 2025) The rise in industrial production in February should further soothe concerns that the economy is on the cusp of recession. Nonetheless, with production supported by rebounds in motor vehicle and... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) Although retail sales only edged up in February, the much larger rebound in control group sales – which feeds into the BEA’s consumption estimate – is something of a relief after the collapse in the... 17th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2025) The plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in March, paired with the surge in inflation expectations, indicates that consumers’ concerns about the impact of the Trump... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) While final demand and core PPI both surprised to the downside in February, the price increases in the components which matter for the PCE deflator were on the whole hotter than we had anticipated. As... 13th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The softer 0.23% m/m rise in core CPI in February is not as encouraging at it looks, as the components which feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price index rose more sharply. While it will depend a lot... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Feb. 2025) The modest 151,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February and 0.1%-point rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% confirms the economy started the year soft but is not plummeting towards a recession. Some... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2025) The ballooning of the trade deficit to a record high of $131.4bn in January once again stemmed from a huge surge in imports as businesses rushed to fast-track orders before new country- and product... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
