US Economics Update Fed to shift to smaller hikes in September The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by a further 75bp to 2.25%-2.50% takes them close to their “neutral” level. With inflation set to fall and mounting signs of economic weakness, we suspect... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jul.) While the deterioration in the survey data and renewed inversion of the Treasury yield curve imply that the risks are rising, our composite models suggest that the economy is still more likely than... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The sharp slowdown in money growth is set to continue as the Fed’s monetary tightening ramps up, but the resilience of bank lending suggests the impact on the economy will be limited. Payrolls Drop-In... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Easing shortages to push down core goods inflation There has been little sign that price pressures have eased yet, but the survey evidence suggests that supply shortages continue to improve. That reinforces our view that core goods inflation will fall... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jun.) While our models suggest that recession risks are still low, the Fed’s rapid policy tightening will trigger a marked slowdown in economic growth, which means that the risks are likely to build over... 29th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed steps up tightening amid worsening inflation The Fed’s larger 75bp rate hike came as little surprise to the markets following the worse than expected May CPI data and Monday’s tip-off in the Wall Street Journal. Our view that inflation will... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to hike by 75bp this week, in race back to neutral Last Friday, we warned in our Data Response to May’s CPI report that the unexpected rise in headline inflation opened the door to a 75bp rate hike by the Fed this Wednesday. Media reports this... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is low household saving a serious threat? We doubt that the low saving rate represents a serious threat to the economy. But with slower employment growth likely to limit gains in income later this year, it adds to our sense that the recent... 2nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages easing in worst hit sectors While the headline job openings and quits rates remain close to record levels, below the surface there are clear signs that labour shortages are easing in the hardest-hit sectors. That provides some... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Annual money growth is slowing sharply and, given rapidly rising interest rates, wealth losses and QT, that slowdown has a lot further to run. The growth rate of bank loans is accelerating, however... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Inventory rebound shows shortages easing fitfully The rapid rebuilding of inventories over the past few quarters has left it close to normal levels in some sectors. But the bigger picture is that economy-wide inventories are still exceptionally lean... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (May) For all the fears that the tightening of financial conditions over the past few months will push the economy into recession, our composite model still puts the risks over the next 12 months at close... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers 50bp hike and QT With the Fed "highly attentive to inflation risks" it raised its policy rate by a bigger 50bp today, to between 0.75% and 1.00%, and launched its quantitative tightening; with the caps on the value of... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions remain tight While the job openings and quits rates both edged up again in March, the bigger picture remains that labour market conditions have been stable over the past nine months or so, with few signs that... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed kicks off tightening cycle in hawkish mood The Fed began its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today and, despite the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and China's efforts to contain the spread of the Omicron variant, officials look set... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession risks still contained The earlier spike in crude oil prices, slump in stock markets and the flattening of the Treasury yield curve have prompted fears that US economy is headed for a 1970s-style stagflation, but our... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
