US Economics Update Does the tripledemic pose a new economic threat? The worsening tripledemic of Covid, influenza and RSV is unlikely to have a significant impact on economic growth, but it could weigh on employment and hours worked over the next few months. 11th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Money growth has stagnated as the Fed’s monetary tightening ramps up, and, while bank loan growth remains robust, we expect it to fade in response to the lagged impact of higher rates and tighter... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update A tale of two labour markets The better-than-expected 263,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment suggests it’s still the best of times in the labour market but, digging below the surface, there are worrying signs that it could... 6th December 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions still easing gradually The further falls in job openings and voluntary quits in October indicate that labour market conditions are continuing to ease gradually, which should keep downward pressure on wage growth. 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Nov.) Despite the recent resilience of the hard economic data, the most reliable forward-looking indicators suggest that a recession is unavoidable – our six-month ahead composite model puts the odds at... 28th November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's losses a political rather than policy problem The Fed’s mounting losses are an expected result of surging interest rates and will not prevent officials from continuing to tighten policy, nor will they require the Treasury to step in and... 8th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Higher rates curb demand for loans Higher interest rates have dramatically curbed the demand for home mortgages and auto loans, but there is only limited evidence of banks tightening lending standards, which suggests that they expect... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed's Powell remains resolutely hawkish The Fed raised its policy rate by another 75bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but laid the groundwork in the accompanying statement for a downshift to a 50bp hike at the next meeting in mid... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Oct.) Our composite tracking models suggest that the economy is increasingly likely to fall into recession in 2023, although the risks of a downturn beginning before the end of this year still appear... 2nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data indicate wage growth will drop back The job openings and quit rates were little changed in September, but the downward trends over the past six months point to an easing of labour market conditions which will weigh more heavily on wage... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is wage growth still accelerating? The outperformance of wage growth for those moving jobs is not a signal that overall wage growth is set to accelerate. The decline in job quits and in the share of firms planning pay rises suggests... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update End of QT may come sooner than first thought While the Fed isn’t likely to follow the Bank of England in pausing QT in response to upward pressure on long-term government bond yields, the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet could end sooner and... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest labour market is cooling The sharp fall in job openings in August will be welcomed by the Fed as a sign that labour market conditions are starting to move back into balance. That won’t prevent further aggressive interest rate... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish 75bp hike The Fed stuck to the script in delivering a 75bp rate hike at its September meeting, but in our view still managed to deliver a hawkish message with the accompanying projections, which imply an... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
