UK Housing Market Update House prices start to fall: your questions answered Following the Nationwide data showing a larger-than-expected fall in house prices in November, we hosted an online Drop-In on 1st December to discuss how far prices could fall and what the downturn... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Lower Bank Rate path won’t prevent repricing As we now think Bank Rate will peak at 4.50% next year as opposed to 5.00%, mortgage rates will be a bit lower in 2023. But ultimately, the surge in mortgage rates over the past year will leave the... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update BTL investors face severe financial squeeze The record-low yields on rental properties and fall in house prices we forecast imply poor returns for Buy-to-Let landlords over the next few years. Moreover, the jump in mortgage rates means a... 23rd November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Renters living alone explain tight rental market The recent surge in rental growth to a record high has been widely reported, but the usual explanations are unsatisfactory. Population indicators don’t suggest a sudden rise in demand, and there is... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A full suite of revised UK Housing forecasts Its widely accepted that the jump in mortgage rates from 1.5% last autumn to 6% means that a significant fall in house prices is now inevitable. In this Update we set out how we came to our forecast... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise, but banks will survive The scale of the increase in mortgage rates means that a large rise in mortgage arrears and repossessions is probably unavoidable. But substantial capital buffers mean lenders will be able to absorb... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Market moves make house price falls inevitable In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Housing Update to clients of our UK Economics service. The rise in market interest rates that has already happened will push up mortgage... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of higher rates for the housing market Investors have revised up how far they expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates as they continue to digest the tax cuts announced on Friday. This Update examines what the impact on the... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tax reduction can’t rescue the market from higher rates The Chancellor took a rare, targeted approach to Stamp Duty in today’s vast package of tax cuts. The changes will remove the tax altogether for large numbers of buyers while retaining most of the... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher rates make price falls even more likely The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast means that mortgage rates will rise further and faster than we previously envisaged, to a peak of 4.7% in March. The resulting higher cost of mortgage... 21st September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fiscal package will not prevent house price falls PM Liz Truss’ fiscal package will limit the size of the forthcoming recession, but that may force the Bank of England to raise rates further to get inflation back to target in the medium term. As a... 8th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will prime central London outperform? Prime central London (PCL) house prices have underperformed even disappointing wider London trends over recent years. But the latest data have been more encouraging and with prime buyers less exposed... 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Build to Rent will continue to thrive The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Should we be worried about refinancing risk? The impact of rising mortgage rates and the hit to real incomes from high inflation have given rise to fears of mortgage repayment difficulties when existing borrowers come to remortgage. But the... 11th July 2022 · 3 mins read
