UK Economics Which measure of GDP should we believe? The divergence between the quarterly and the monthly measures of GDP have left it unclear whether the economy is still languishing at about 2.0% below its pre-pandemic level or if it is nearing that... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rate rises coming, but not as many as the markets expect By leaving interest rates at 0.10% and continuing its QE asset purchases, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t set off any early fireworks today. But it did throw on the bonfire the markets’... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Fiscal rules are there to be broken The Chancellor’s new fiscal rules could help to convince voters and investors of the Conservative Party’s fiscal discipline. But with eleven rules having come and gone in the past seven years and with... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 27 th October and to provide some... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Budget Preview – Restraint now, largesse later Despite the improving outlook for the public finances, the rumours that the Chancellor will set himself some fairly stringent fiscal rules suggest that there’s not going to be a net giveaway in the... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics How would the economy cope with electricity shortages? There is an outside risk that the UK could face some limited short-term rationing of electricity this winter if weather conditions were to be unfavourable. This risk isn’t yet significant enough to... 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour shortages becoming worse and more widespread Labour shortages seem to be worse and more widespread than we had expected. Although the end of the furlough scheme in late September may ease some of the shortages, we doubt it will plug all the... 12th October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics MPC to keep feeling the heat from inflation expectations The recent sharp rise in public and market-based measures of inflation expectations has worried the Bank of England. Inflation expectations will probably rise further as actual inflation continues to... 5th October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Farewell furlough The impact on the labour market of the end of the furlough scheme could ultimately determine whether an interest rate hike comes in the next few months, or not until mid-2022. Our view remains that... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics High utility prices and tax rises a heavy hit to households The double whammy of higher utility prices and the government’s new “health and social care levy” will reduce real household disposable incomes over the next year or so by £16.5bn, or 0.6% of GDP... 28th September 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics MPC getting closer to tightening policy While rates were left at +0.10% in an 9-0 vote and the Bank of England’s target stock of purchased assets at £895bn, today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy statement suggests that the Bank is... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Inflation to fall sharply in 2022 despite higher utility prices Given the recent surge in wholesale gas and electricity prices to record highs, it looks likely that Ofgem will opt for another chunky hike to the price cap on households’ utility bills next April... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics The rise in consumer prices is not widespread A deeper dive into the CPI figures supports our initial analysis that the bulk of the jump in inflation from 2.0% in July to 3.2% in August is due to base effects linked to falling consumer prices in... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Government leaves itself with some fiscal ammo to utilise later The net effect of today’s announcements on social care reform may provide a very small boost to GDP. But perhaps more important is that by funding more spending on social care by raising taxes, the... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics HGV labour shortages won’t drive interest rates up next year Reports that shortages of heavy good vehicles (HGV) drivers have become more acute and have raised drivers’ pay will do little to ease fears that higher wage growth could persistently lift CPI... 3rd September 2021 · 3 mins read